Trump, who stunned the political world when he beat Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016, also has a 5-6% advantage over other candidates because he’s an incumbent.
“The advantage of first-term incumbency and the relatively strong economic performance ahead of the presidential election suggest that President Trump is more likely to win a second term than the eventual Democratic candidate is to defeat him,” said economists Alec Phillips and Blake Taylor in a report released late Saturday.
Under Trump, the stock market has continued to build value, and Trump’s policies continue to drive job creation. The gross domestic product, a broad measure of the national economy, also continues to grow, with a 2.9% increase in 2018.
More than 20 Democrats are vying for Trump’s job, including Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, California Sen. Kamala Harris and, potentially, former Vice President Joe Biden.
“At this early stage with so many candidates, it is nearly impossible to predict who among the roughly 20 announced and potential Democratic candidates will win the nomination,” Goldman’s economists said.
“That said, we would make two observations. First, while the eventual nominee often trails in the polls in the year before the election, they typically have at least some base of support and poll in the double-digits. At the moment, only [Biden and Sanders] poll nationally in double digits,” the bank wrote.
Trump’s job approval rating has increased sharply over the last month, up to 45% in an April 1-9 Gallup poll from 39% in March. The figures follow the completion of special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election.
Attorney General William Barr’s summary of Mueller’s findings reported no Russian involvement in the Trump campaign and insufficient evidence of obstruction of justice.