This past weekend, members of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario (“PCs”) elected Doug Ford as their candidate to represent them in the upcoming provincial election. Campaign Research conducted a public opinion poll on Ford’s chances of succeeding Kathleen Wynne as Premier of Ontario. The results were impressive. It seems that Ford and the PCs have a opportunity to form a majority government in June.
Following Ford’s election as the PC Party Leader, the PCs achieved 43% voter intent among the electorate. Their opposition, the Ontario Liberal Party (“OLP”), had the support of 27% of decided voters. The Ontario New Democratic Party (“ONDP”) had 23% support; meanwhile, the Green Party of Ontario (“GPO”) had 5% support. Interestingly, only 11% of Ontarians were completely undecided as to whom they will vote for.
The PCs garnered strong support from men and woman (Men= 46% and Woman= 40%) as well as voters 35 years of age and older (Age 35-44= 40%, 45-54= 47%, 55-64= 46% and 65+= 53%). Regionally, the strongest voter intent for the PCs came from the Peel/Halton (50%), York/ Simcoe/ Durham (50%), and Eastern (48%) regions. Eastern region does not include the City of Ottawa. The OLP has strong support from younger voters (Age 18-24= 45%). Additionally, it has a lead in the Ottawa region (42%) and is now statistically tied with the PCs in Toronto (OLP=36% to PCs=37%). The ONDP trail the PCs but remain competitive in Northern Ontario (ONDP=32% to PCs=36%) and the Southwest regions (ONDP=34% to PCs=41%).
Premier Wynne’s net approval rating was -50% (Approval=19% and Disapproval=69% with 13% saying they were unsure). Andrea Horwath scored a net approval rating of +17% (Approval=36% and Disapproval=19% with 44% saying they didn’t know); meanwhile, Ford scored a net job approval rating of +6% (Approval=31% and Disapproval=25% with 44% saying they didn’t know).
Interestingly, only 4% of PC voters disapproved of Ford. Moreover, 59% of PC voters approved of Ford and 38% were unsure. 26% of OLP voters disapproved of Wynne. Of OLP voters, 58% approved of her and 16% were unsure. Only 4% of ONDP voters disapproved of Horwath. 72% of ONDP voters approved of Horwath; meanwhile, 25% were unsure. Horwath has high net approval numbers even among OLP (+18%) and GPO (+19%) voters.
“With Doug Ford as the new PC Leader, the PCs hold a commanding lead over the OLP and ONDP. The Doug Ford PCs are in dead heat with the OLP in Toronto – traditionally, a stronghold for the OLP. The PCs are set to win big in the GTA and many other regions.” – said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research Inc. Eli can be reached at [email protected] or (647) 931-4025 x 109
This online poll was conducted between March 12 to 14, 2018 among a panel of 1,637 Ontario voters. A probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4%, 19 out of 20 times